What are we going to use when all the oil runs out?

Question

Some of the most respected reports tell us that oil will be depleted as soon as 2050 which is only 38 years away. That's not very long at all and certainly not long enough to hope for a scientific discovery. In reality this issue should be one of the most important given the small amount of oil that's left and any replacement should be in place already if we stand any chance of a smooth transition.

The scariest thought for me is how the remaining oil is going to be distributed because as supplies get smaller and smaller, if everyone is still dependant on it, it's going to give rise to a lot of territorial disputes and probably start many bloody wars for the last scrap's of oil. I can't imagine the last remaining stocks of oil being used for anything other than military use and wars.THIS is why a feasible replacement should already be in place right now and it shouldn't be left any longer.

Answer 1

Back to horse and cart and as oil is used for a large amount of day to day products we would go back a few ages and live simple lives again.



I think its fair punishment for our greed and stupidity.

Answer 2

1) Oil will never run out. If you take economics classes, you will learn. You see, as a material (like oil) becomes more scarce, it becomes more difficult to find and extract and therefore more expensive. This causes supply to drop relative to demand which raises price. This in turn forces consumers to find alternative cost-effective options. When cost-effective options are available, demand for the original product drops and production slows. This means that a resources' use becomes asymptotic -- it never really reaches zero because it stops getting regularly used. There will be some of the wealthy with classic cars who continue to buy petroleum products as a luxury for a time, but ultimately the market will provide an alternative.



And no, 40 years is NOT too short of a time to expect a technological innovation. Cars have only been in common use for about 80 or 90 years now. Prior to the 1920's and 1930's, cars were prohibitively expensive and most people did not have them. Even until after WWII, most FAMILIES only had one car.



The internet has only been around for about 20 years, and only what you think of as "the internet" for about 10 years.



There are still houses in the world without electricity. There were houses in the US without electricity until well into the 1940s/1950s.



Oh, and it is totally possible to run a combustion engine off of other things besides gasoline. There are alternatives on the market already. During WWII, there were many military vehicles that started with diesel, but then used wood burners to drive.



Oh, and do you know who the greatest investors in alternative fuels are? Oil companies. Shell even brags about it during their commercials. This is done because they need to have a new product when they can no longer profit from oil.



The point of all this is that your assumptions are all wrong. 1) There is PLENTY of time for technological innovation. We have adopted larger technological changes in shorter periods of time in the past (the telephone, electricity, automobiles all became useful sooner that 40 years from invention). 2) Oil will not "run out" one day. As the reserves shrink, the prices will rise and usage will slow extending the longevity (but not the gross quantity) of the oil supply indefinitely.



We're already having wars over oil because right now, oil is VERY profitable. In a few more years when the market is flooded with alternatives there will be less profit in the oil industry and your territorial concerns will fade.



The whole world is governed by economics.

Answer 3

Which respected reports? We are finding new oil fields all the time...



Feasible replacements...Sun, wind and waves spring to mind! And who knows what they'll come up with by then? We are long overdue a big discovery like nuclear power!



Who knows that they won't find find a way to create oil in a lab one day? Out of pickled snails and dark matter or something like that...



Agreed, we should be doing more with renewable energy but at the end of the day, do you really want to drive an electric car??

Answer 4

This is why so much money is being invested into renewable resources like solar power and wind energy. When coal and oil run out, we'll have no other option. 2050 is a long time away though, so who knows what other ideas people will come up with before then?

Answer 5

Nobody is prepared to admit it, but nuclear power is the only really viable high volume answer. To power cars it will have to be used to generate hydrogen. Obviously it can generate electricity for other uses too.



It would be nice if renewable sources could do the whole job, but as you say, we've only got a few decades and people round my way kick of even if developers want to build just one paltry little wind turbine.

Answer 6

Thorium as a fuel in nuclear reactors, instead of Uranium. As the French have a monopoly on Uranium fuelled technology in the EU it will be the Indian and Chinese that will reap the benefits.

Answer 7

We'll be getting stuck into the natural gas when the oil's gone.

Answer 8

Survive as we have done it all the way up - renewable energy is one step in this direction. Electromagnetism could be answer too.

Answer 9

I can't understand why 1960/1970 known reserve then are still being presented.



Most claim there is only 20 billion or 30 billion known reserves, but it is many times more than that. Also, wells that went dry in the 1970's, are producing again at capacity and will produce as long as they did 40 years ago. There is something going on that we do not know yet - oil may not be fossil fuel, it may be made in the mantle and a renewable energy, i.e unlimited supply.



There is also more than 500 years of coal, more than 300 years of natural gas, and more than 1000 years of methane hydrate.



There have been dozens of predictions for when we would run out of oil since oil was discovered, and the predictions were exceeded every time.



Timeline -



One of many sources - (http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html)



• 1857 -- Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

• 1859, Aug. 25 -- Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

• 1862 -- First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

• 1862 -- Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon. (Kovarik, 1997)

• 1863 -- John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."

• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left.

• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels.

• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.

• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")

• 1973 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

• 1979 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

• 2005 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand

• 2008 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.



Notice that as time goes on, the reserves keep rising exponentially? The reserves they are publishing global reserves and it will be in about 300 to 500 years from now as it stands today. Who knows, next century they could be warning we only have 1000 years of oil left.



No need to worry for more than 15 to 25 generations. I think they will be smart enough to know what to do without our help.

Answer 10

you need to research a bit...NUCLEAR is the best and reliable source today...and btw we are finding oil source every year..dont bother you will have enough fuel till ur son dies..take care cheers